Some call it Europe’s real migrant crisis. According to the Center for Global Development (CGDEV), Europe will soon be short large numbers of workers across various sectors. As most countries have broken their number of open vacancy records, shortages are slowly becoming the norm. But as open vacancies are, in many ways, pose an immediate problem. The continent faces a much larger problem in the long-run. That problem is called ageing.
Under the medium prediction by the UN, by 2050 Europe would have a population of 710 million. That is approximately 36.4 million less than in 2021.
According to an extensive study conducted by the United Nations, Europe will have 95 million fewer working-age people (between 20 and 64) in 2050 than in 2015. Under the medium prediction by the UN, by 2050 Europe would have a population of 710 million. That is approximately 36.4 million less than in 2021. “Europeans are living longer and having fewer kids”, said Charles Kenny, co-author of the CGDEV study.
Germany’s labour shortage is Europe’s worst
While much of Europe will experience labour shortages, experts see Germany coming off worst. According to the CGDEV and United Nations (UN) studies, Germany is projected to have worker gap of 7 million by 2050. That notion is echoed by a McKinsey study into the future of work in Europe, which predicts Germany could see its labour pool decline by about 4 million people by 2030.
‘It is dramatically slowing down our economy’
The employer-friendly German Economic Institute thinks the worker situation will be even worse by 2030. It estimates that the labour force in Germany will shrink by more than 300,000 in 2022 alone — and will lead to an accumulated shortage of people of working age of 5 million by 2030. “The shortage of skilled workers has become so serious by now that it is dramatically slowing down our economy”, Christian Duerr, parliamentary leader of the co-governing Free Democrats (FDP), told business magazine WirtschaftsWoche.
“The shortage of skilled workers has become so serious by now that it is dramatically slowing down our economy.”
On a positive note: the German government seems to be fully aware of the issue. And is one of the first to actively seek a real solution for its impending worker crisis. In early 2020, Germany initiated a so-called Skilled Workers Immigration Act. Unlike the British version of it, it aimed to fast-track visa and residence permit applications for skilled workers from abroad with vocational skills. But as the COVID-19 crisis arrived, paired with subsequent lockdowns and travel restrictions arrived, it shattered any hope of the act succeeding.
400,000 immigrants needed every year
Now, the Federal Employment Agency has upped the ante with a lofty goal. It has publicly stated that Germany needs 400,000 immigrants every year in order to fill the gaps in the labour market. “We can only get the problem of an ageing workforce under control with a modern immigration policy”, Duerr added. “[Germany has] to reach the mark of 400,000 skilled workers from abroad as quickly as possible.”
“We can only get the problem of an ageing workforce under control with a modern immigration policy.”
Germany was one of many European countries to increase its minimum wage in the past year. As birth rates have remained historically low, the country now looks to skilled migration as the only way out of its impending talent crisis. Whether it will be enough, remains to be seen.
