It very much became a where when you moment when OpenAI first launched ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. Within five days, the tool had already amassed more than a million users, the largest total in a short number of days, before being leapfrogged by Instagram’s rival to Twitter (X), Threads, a few months later. Since its inception, ChatGPT still regularly rakes in approximately 1.6 billion visitors per month. Though June, 2023 became the first month
So the question beckons: could the AI Hype, after eight manic months of speculation and impact, finally be dying down? But AI should be different, surely? After all, trillion-dollar companies such as Alphabet and Microsoft have declared it the best thing since sliced bread, while venture capitals have taken en masse. 2023 is already a record year for investment in generative AI startups, with equity funding topping $14.1B (approximately €12.2B) across 86 deals, as of Q2 of 23.
Enter the Gartner Hype Cycle
As simply is the case for many types of innovation, some simply die. Hype enthousiasts, for years, have taken to the Hype Cycle developed by Gartner to follow the rise (and fall) of technology. Introduced in 1995, Gartner’s Hype Cycle models the journey of innovation, from initial excitement to disillusionment, culminating in a comprehensive understanding of a technology’s role.
Introduced in 1995, Gartner’s Hype Cycle models the journey of innovation, from initial excitement to disillusionment, culminating in a comprehensive understanding of a technology’s role
The Hype Cycle illustrates a recurring pattern seen in emerging technologies and innovations. While Gartner’s Hype Cycles often focus on specific technologies, the pattern applies to broader concepts like IT methodologies and management practices. Elements on the Hype Cycles are labeled as technologies, yet they also encompass higher-level trends such as strategies, standards, and competencies. Gartner annually produces 90+ Hype Cycles across technology, application, information services, and industry domains.
Where’s AI on the Hype Cycle?
Fast forward to the Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, updated by Gartner in August 2023. “Generative AI is dominating discussions on AI, having increased productivity for developers and knowledge workers in very real ways, using systems like ChatGPT”, Gartner adds. “This has caused organisations and industries to rethink their business processes and the value of human resources, pushing GenAI to the Peak of Inflated Expectations on the Hype Cycle.”
“The AI Hype Cycle has many innovations that deserve particular attention within the two-to-five-year period to mainstream adoption that include generative AI and decision intelligence”, said Gartner Director Analyst Afraz Jaffri. “Early adoption of these innovations will lead to significant competitive advantage and ease the problems associated with utilizing AI models within business processes.”
Has AI peaked with Generative AI?
If we were to read the full Hype Cycle, Generative AI is firmly placed atop the cycle. It had perhaps already been predicted, but it could potentially be viewed synonymously for the peak of inflated expectations. “Generative AI exploration is accelerating, thanks to the popularity of stable diffusion, midjourney, ChatGPT and large language models. End-user organisations in most industries aggressively experiment with generative AI,“ says Gartner VP Analyst Svetlana Sicular.
“Numerous startups have emerged in 2023 to innovate with generative AI, and we expect this to grow. Some governments are evaluating the impacts of generative AI and preparing to introduce regulations.”
“Technology vendors form generative AI groups to prioritise delivery of generative-AI-enabled applications and tools”, Sicular continues. Numerous startups have emerged in 2023 to innovate with generative AI, and we expect this to grow. Some governments are evaluating the impacts of generative AI and preparing to introduce regulations.”
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